-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/despina.alexiadou/Dropbox/mac_2011/pledges/PSRM_R1_Materials/da
> taverse_psrm/Section_B_C_Appendix/log_replication_psrm_ppp_SectionsB_C.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:  31 Dec 2017, 13:43:59

. 
. *****Additional analysis for Platforms, Portfolios, Policy: How Audience Costs Af
> fect Social Welfare Policy in Multiparty Cabinets 
. ******By Despina Alexiadou, University of Strathclyde and Danial Hoepfner, Univer
> sity of Pittsburgh***
. 
end of do-file

. do "/var/folders/r7/wx5h_jrj7pjdkpy1gpn6jn1w0000gn/T//SD60138.000000"

. *****Replicating supporting evidence. Section B of the Appendix*****
. *********************************voting*************
. ******Replication of TABLE 2A**************************************
. **Testing effects for election-country****
. *****RESULT:The left's pledge affects vote intention depending on changes in welf
> are generosity across the models. Yet, for voters who voted left in last election
> s
. *****the control of the portfolio of social affairs strongly predicts their vote 
> intention***********
. 
. *********************************************************************************
> ************
. ********************************All voters***************************************
> *************
. *********************************************************************************
> *************
. 
. ************Intercating Left Pledge*Change in Welfare Generosity*Left Governmnet*
> *************
. meqrlogit vleftt dtotgen leftpled leftgov leftaff genxgov pledxgov pledxgenxgov p
> ledxgen age female educ inc lr unem union B1008 ||ccode:

Refining starting values: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -13893.971  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -13847.508  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -13845.112  

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -13845.112  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -13759.894  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -13757.122  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -13756.838  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -13756.831  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -13756.831  

Mixed-effects logistic regression               Number of obs     =     28,361
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =          8

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =        824
                                                              avg =    3,545.1
                                                              max =      7,459

Integration points =   7                        Wald chi2(16)     =    2358.65
Log likelihood = -13756.831                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      vleftt |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     dtotgen |   .8381004   .1536721     5.45   0.000     .5369088    1.139292
    leftpled |   .0578987   .0186101     3.11   0.002     .0214237    .0943737
     leftgov |   .6672361    .125564     5.31   0.000     .4211352     .913337
     leftaff |  -.3581277    .111895    -3.20   0.001    -.5774379   -.1388176
     genxgov |  -1.728056    .172538   -10.02   0.000    -2.066224   -1.389887
    pledxgov |  -.0650499    .016295    -3.99   0.000    -.0969875   -.0331123
pledxgenxgov |   .1634579    .030218     5.41   0.000     .1042318    .2226841
    pledxgen |  -.0004408   .0007234    -0.61   0.542    -.0018587    .0009771
         age |   .0077324   .0009532     8.11   0.000     .0058641    .0096007
      female |   .0019892   .0299988     0.07   0.947    -.0568074    .0607858
        educ |  -.0799428   .0097879    -8.17   0.000    -.0991267   -.0607589
         inc |   .0071418   .0116032     0.62   0.538       -.0156    .0298837
          lr |  -.3166381   .0073285   -43.21   0.000    -.3310017   -.3022745
        unem |  -.2896666   .0738291    -3.92   0.000    -.4343691   -.1449642
       union |   .3982785   .0337139    11.81   0.000     .3322004    .4643566
       B1008 |  -.1202243   .0095665   -12.57   0.000    -.1389743   -.1014743
       _cons |   240.4186   19.07059    12.61   0.000     203.0409    277.7963
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
ccode: Identity              |
                  var(_cons) |   .8366072   .4273018      .3074437    2.276552
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. logistic model: chibar2(01) = 492.22      Prob >= chibar2 = 0.0000

. estimates store gov

. eststo avgov

. *************Intercating Left Pledge*Change in Welfare Generosity*Left Social Aff
> airs**********
. meqrlogit vleftt dtotgen leftpled leftgov leftaff pledxgen pledxsa genxaff genxle
> ftpledxsa age female educ inc lr unem union B1008 ||ccode:

Refining starting values: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -13889.647  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -13862.691  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -13861.362  

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -13861.362  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -13761.831  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -13756.155  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -13756.088  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -13756.088  

Mixed-effects logistic regression               Number of obs     =     28,361
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =          8

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =        824
                                                              avg =    3,545.1
                                                              max =      7,459

Integration points =   7                        Wald chi2(16)     =    2359.82
Log likelihood = -13756.088                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         vleftt |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        dtotgen |   .8614831   .1509186     5.71   0.000     .5656882    1.157278
       leftpled |   .0612495   .0181894     3.37   0.001     .0255989       .0969
        leftgov |  -.1558933   .1174863    -1.33   0.185    -.3861623    .0743757
        leftaff |   .4667413   .1268469     3.68   0.000      .218126    .7153567
       pledxgen |  -.0005423   .0007163    -0.76   0.449    -.0019463    .0008617
        pledxsa |   -.063102   .0160693    -3.93   0.000    -.0945973   -.0316066
        genxaff |  -1.729577   .1720234   -10.05   0.000    -2.066737   -1.392417
genxleftpledxsa |   .1593342   .0297891     5.35   0.000     .1009487    .2177197
            age |   .0077306   .0009532     8.11   0.000     .0058623     .009599
         female |   .0019634    .029999     0.07   0.948    -.0568336    .0607603
           educ |  -.0800619   .0097875    -8.18   0.000    -.0992451   -.0608788
            inc |   .0072177   .0116028     0.62   0.534    -.0155235    .0299588
             lr |  -.3166804   .0073286   -43.21   0.000    -.3310442   -.3023167
           unem |   -.289372   .0738327    -3.92   0.000    -.4340815   -.1446626
          union |   .3969085   .0336819    11.78   0.000     .3308933    .4629238
          B1008 |   -.121136   .0094861   -12.77   0.000    -.1397285   -.1025436
          _cons |   242.2554   18.92162    12.80   0.000     205.1697    279.3411
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
ccode: Identity              |
                  var(_cons) |   .6922225     .35468      .2535761    1.889658
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. logistic model: chibar2(01) = 503.16      Prob >= chibar2 = 0.0000

. estimates store sa

. eststo avsa

. *********************************************************************************
> *********************
. *******************************Only voters who voted left in the previous electio
> n********************
. *********************************************************************************
> *********************
. ************Intercating Left Pledge*Change in Welfare Generosity*Left Governmnet
. meqrlogit vleftt dtotgen leftpled leftgov leftaff genxgov pledxgov pledxgenxgov p
> ledxgen age female educ inc lr unem union B1008 ||ccode: if vlefttm1==1

Refining starting values: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -2926.9292  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -2924.5067  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -2923.8702  

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -2923.8702  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -2923.382  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -2922.9574  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2922.2757  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2922.1432  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -2922.0424  
Iteration 6:   log likelihood = -2922.0298  
Iteration 7:   log likelihood = -2922.0297  

Mixed-effects logistic regression               Number of obs     =      5,120
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =          6

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =         63
                                                              avg =      853.3
                                                              max =      2,426

Integration points =   7                        Wald chi2(16)     =     352.25
Log likelihood = -2922.0297                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      vleftt |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     dtotgen |  -.7732114   .7729852    -1.00   0.317    -2.288235    .7418118
    leftpled |  -.0029681   .0527719    -0.06   0.955     -.106399    .1004628
     leftgov |    .253218   .6123012     0.41   0.679    -.9468702    1.453306
     leftaff |  -.1598399   .3782439    -0.42   0.673    -.9011844    .5815045
     genxgov |   .0321268   1.054385     0.03   0.976    -2.034429    2.098683
    pledxgov |  -.0310179   .0842494    -0.37   0.713    -.1961437    .1341079
pledxgenxgov |   .1601284   .0867201     1.85   0.065    -.0098399    .3300967
    pledxgen |  -.0040983   .0029399    -1.39   0.163    -.0098604    .0016638
         age |   .0218965    .002207     9.92   0.000     .0175709    .0262221
      female |   .0093427   .0639684     0.15   0.884     -.116033    .1347183
        educ |  -.0271794    .020829    -1.30   0.192    -.0680035    .0136446
         inc |   .0532035   .0252365     2.11   0.035     .0037409    .1026662
          lr |  -.1919913   .0169211   -11.35   0.000    -.2251561   -.1588265
        unem |  -.4484865   .1481788    -3.03   0.002    -.7389116   -.1580614
       union |   .1121494   .0703285     1.59   0.111    -.0256919    .2499908
       B1008 |  -.1717137   .0181882    -9.44   0.000    -.2073619   -.1360656
       _cons |    344.744   36.51954     9.44   0.000      273.167    416.3209
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
ccode: Identity              |
                  var(_cons) |   .1915954    .167434      .0345561    1.062294
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. logistic model: chibar2(01) = 0.48        Prob >= chibar2 = 0.2438

. estimates store govtm1

. eststo lvgov

. *************Intercating Left Pledge*Change in Welfare Generosity*Left Social Aff
> airs**********
. meqrlogit vleftt dtotgen leftpled leftgov leftaff pledxgen pledxsa genxaff genxle
> ftpledxsa age female educ inc lr unem union B1008 ||ccode: if vlefttm1==1

Refining starting values: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -2924.586  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -2919.3155  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -2916.4872  

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -2916.4872  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -2916.1276  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -2915.8226  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2915.6948  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2915.6614  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -2915.6614  

Mixed-effects logistic regression               Number of obs     =      5,120
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =          6

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =         63
                                                              avg =      853.3
                                                              max =      2,426

Integration points =   7                        Wald chi2(16)     =     408.84
Log likelihood = -2915.6614                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         vleftt |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        dtotgen |  -.6522171    .217244    -3.00   0.003    -1.078007   -.2264267
       leftpled |   .0041214   .0136925     0.30   0.763    -.0227154    .0309582
        leftgov |   .9474298   .1709773     5.54   0.000     .6123204    1.282539
        leftaff |  -.5517512   .2693136    -2.05   0.040    -1.079596   -.0239064
       pledxgen |  -.0055829   .0018954    -2.95   0.003    -.0092978    -.001868
        pledxsa |  -.0638574   .0198858    -3.21   0.001    -.1028329    -.024882
        genxaff |  -.2443386   .2444276    -1.00   0.317    -.7234079    .2347307
genxleftpledxsa |   .1925646   .0208356     9.24   0.000     .1517276    .2334017
            age |   .0217978    .002203     9.89   0.000     .0174801    .0261156
         female |   .0134798   .0639095     0.21   0.833    -.1117805    .1387402
           educ |  -.0251267   .0207958    -1.21   0.227    -.0658858    .0156323
            inc |   .0518663   .0250162     2.07   0.038     .0028355    .1008971
             lr |  -.1939017   .0166554   -11.64   0.000    -.2265457   -.1612578
           unem |  -.4564087   .1477402    -3.09   0.002    -.7459741   -.1668433
          union |   .1003766   .0695431     1.44   0.149    -.0359254    .2366787
          B1008 |  -.1623894    .015298   -10.62   0.000    -.1923728   -.1324059
          _cons |   325.8705   30.65429    10.63   0.000     265.7892    385.9518
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
ccode: Identity              |
                  var(_cons) |   4.99e-16   1.76e-09             0           .
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. logistic model: chibar2(01) = 0.00        Prob >= chibar2 = 1.0000

. estimates store satm1

. eststo lvsa

. 
. esttab avgov avsa lvgov lvsa, label order(dtotgen leftpled leftgov leftaff pledxg
> en genxgov pledxgov pledxgenxgov pledxsa genxaff genxleftpledxsa age female educ 
> inc lr unem union B1008)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> -
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)  
>  
                     vote left ~t    vote left ~t    vote left ~t    vote left ~t  
>  
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> -
eq1                                                                                
>  
d.totgener                  0.838***        0.861***       -0.773          -0.652**
>  
                           (5.45)          (5.71)         (-1.00)         (-3.00)  
>  

left pledge                0.0579**        0.0612***     -0.00297         0.00412  
>  
                           (3.11)          (3.37)         (-0.06)          (0.30)  
>  

left in govt                0.667***       -0.156           0.253           0.947**
> *
                           (5.31)         (-1.33)          (0.41)          (5.54)  
>  

left s affairs             -0.358**         0.467***       -0.160          -0.552* 
>  
                          (-3.20)          (3.68)         (-0.42)         (-2.05)  
>  

generosity x pledge     -0.000441       -0.000542        -0.00410        -0.00558**
>  
                          (-0.61)         (-0.76)         (-1.39)         (-2.95)  
>  

generosity X left ~t       -1.728***                       0.0321                  
>  
                         (-10.02)                          (0.03)                  
>  

pled x leftgov            -0.0650***                      -0.0310                  
>  
                          (-3.99)                         (-0.37)                  
>  

generosisty x pled~t        0.163***                        0.160                  
>  
                           (5.41)                          (1.85)                  
>  

pled x leftsa                             -0.0631***                      -0.0639**
>  
                                          (-3.93)                         (-3.21)  
>  

generosity X left ~A                       -1.730***                       -0.244  
>  
                                         (-10.05)                         (-1.00)  
>  

generosity X left ~d                        0.159***                        0.193**
> *
                                           (5.35)                          (9.24)  
>  

AGE                       0.00773***      0.00773***       0.0219***       0.0218**
> *
                           (8.11)          (8.11)          (9.92)          (9.89)  
>  

GENDER                    0.00199         0.00196         0.00934          0.0135  
>  
                           (0.07)          (0.07)          (0.15)          (0.21)  
>  

EDUCATION                 -0.0799***      -0.0801***      -0.0272         -0.0251  
>  
                          (-8.17)         (-8.18)         (-1.30)         (-1.21)  
>  

HOUSEHOLD INCOME          0.00714         0.00722          0.0532*         0.0519* 
>  
                           (0.62)          (0.62)          (2.11)          (2.07)  
>  

LEFT/RIGHT - SELF          -0.317***       -0.317***       -0.192***       -0.194**
> *
                         (-43.21)        (-43.21)        (-11.35)        (-11.64)  
>  

unem                       -0.290***       -0.289***       -0.448**        -0.456**
>  
                          (-3.92)         (-3.92)         (-3.03)         (-3.09)  
>  

Houshold union mem~r        0.398***        0.397***        0.112           0.100  
>  
                          (11.81)         (11.78)          (1.59)          (1.44)  
>  

ID COMPONENT - ELE~R       -0.120***       -0.121***       -0.172***       -0.162**
> *
                         (-12.57)        (-12.77)         (-9.44)        (-10.62)  
>  

Constant                    240.4***        242.3***        344.7***        325.9**
> *
                          (12.61)         (12.80)          (9.44)         (10.63)  
>  
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> -
lns1_1_1                                                                           
>  
Constant                  -0.0892          -0.184          -0.826          -17.62  
>  
                          (-0.35)         (-0.72)         (-1.89)         (-0.00)  
>  
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> -
Observations                28361           28361            5120            5120  
>  
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> -
t statistics in parentheses
* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. *****Predicted probabilities: calculations for discussion on pages 10 & 11 of the
>  Online Appendix
. sum dtotgen leftpled  

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     dtotgen |     36,938   -.2385538    .7346679         -2         .7
    leftpled |     36,938    8.850164    6.095303       2.06      26.91

. di 8.85+6.0
14.85

. di -.24-.75
-.99

. di 14.85*-.99
-14.7015

. 
. ******All voters*****
. 
. estimates restore gov
(results gov are active now)

. 
. **high pledge low gen w/ gov
. margins, at(leftgov=1 dtotgen=-.99 leftpled=14.85 leftaff=0 pledxgen=-14.7 pledxg
> ov=14.85 genxgov=-.99 pledxgenxgov=-14.7) atmeans predict(mu fixedonly)

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -.99
               leftpled        =       14.85
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               genxgov         =        -.99
               pledxgov        =       14.85
               pledxgenxgov    =       -14.7
               pledxgen        =       -14.7
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0508349    .028094     1.81   0.070    -.0042284    .1058982
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. **high pledge low gen w/0 gov
. margins, at(leftgov=0 dtotgen=-.99 leftpled=14.85 leftaff=0 pledxgen=-14.7 pledxg
> ov=0 genxgov=0 pledxgenxgov=0) atmeans predict(mu fixedonly)

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -.99
               leftpled        =       14.85
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               genxgov         =           0
               pledxgov        =           0
               pledxgenxgov    =           0
               pledxgen        =       -14.7
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1260673   .0365035     3.45   0.001     .0545218    .1976128
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. estimates restore sa
(results sa are active now)

. 
. **high pledge low gen w/ sa
. margins, at(leftgov=1 dtotgen=-.99 leftpled=14.85 leftaff=1 pledxgen=-14.7 pledxs
> a=14.85 genxaff=-.99 genxleftpledxsa=-14.7) atmeans predict(mu fixedonly)

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -.99
               leftpled        =       14.85
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       -14.7
               pledxsa         =       14.85
               genxaff         =        -.99
               genxleftpl~a    =       -14.7
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |    .040886   .0238619     1.71   0.087    -.0058826    .0876545
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. **high pledge low gen w/0 sa
. margins, at(leftgov=1 dtotgen=-.99 leftpled=14.85 leftaff=0 pledxgen=-14.7 pledxs
> a=0 genxaff=0 genxleftpledxsa=0) atmeans predict(mu fixedonly)

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -.99
               leftpled        =       14.85
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =       -14.7
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1135513   .0330073     3.44   0.001     .0488582    .1782445
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. ****Only left voters***
. 
. estimates restore govtm1
(results govtm1 are active now)

. **high pledge low gen w/ gov
. margins, at(leftgov=1 dtotgen=-.99 leftpled=14.85 leftaff=0 pledxgen=-14.7 pledxg
> ov=14.85 genxgov=-.89 pledxgenxgov=-14.7) atmeans predict(mu fixedonly)

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      5,120

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -.99
               leftpled        =       14.85
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               genxgov         =        -.89
               pledxgov        =       14.85
               pledxgenxgov    =       -14.7
               pledxgen        =       -14.7
               age             =    50.02539 (mean)
               female          =     1.47168 (mean)
               educ            =    5.393164 (mean)
               inc             =    2.994727 (mean)
               lr              =           4 (mean)
               unem            =    .0464844 (mean)
               union           =    .4021484 (mean)
               B1008           =    2005.119 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .2704178    .302186     0.89   0.371    -.3218558    .8626915
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. **high pledge low gen w/0 gov
. margins, at(leftgov=0 dtotgen=-.99 leftpled=14.85 leftaff=0 pledxgen=-14.7 pledxg
> ov=0 genxgov=0 pledxgenxgov=0) atmeans predict(mu fixedonly)

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      5,120

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -.99
               leftpled        =       14.85
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               genxgov         =           0
               pledxgov        =           0
               pledxgenxgov    =           0
               pledxgen        =       -14.7
               age             =    50.02539 (mean)
               female          =     1.47168 (mean)
               educ            =    5.393164 (mean)
               inc             =    2.994727 (mean)
               lr              =           4 (mean)
               unem            =    .0464844 (mean)
               union           =    .4021484 (mean)
               B1008           =    2005.119 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .8316512   .0757764    10.98   0.000     .6831322    .9801701
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. estimates restore satm1
(results satm1 are active now)

. **high pledge low gen w/ sa
. margins, at(leftgov=1 dtotgen=-.99 leftpled=14.85 leftaff=1 pledxgen=-14.7 pledxs
> a=14.85 genxaff=-.99 genxleftpledxsa=-14.7) atmeans predict(mu fixedonly)

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      5,120

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -.99
               leftpled        =       14.85
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       -14.7
               pledxsa         =       14.85
               genxaff         =        -.99
               genxleftpl~a    =       -14.7
               age             =    50.02539 (mean)
               female          =     1.47168 (mean)
               educ            =    5.393164 (mean)
               inc             =    2.994727 (mean)
               lr              =           4 (mean)
               unem            =    .0464844 (mean)
               union           =    .4021484 (mean)
               B1008           =    2005.119 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1520999   .0437041     3.48   0.001     .0664414    .2377584
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. **high pledge low gen w/0 sa
. margins, at(leftgov=1 dtotgen=-.99 leftpled=14.85 leftaff=0 pledxgen=-14.7 pledxs
> a=0 genxaff=0 genxleftpledxsa=0) atmeans predict(mu fixedonly)

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =      5,120

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -.99
               leftpled        =       14.85
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =       -14.7
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    50.02539 (mean)
               female          =     1.47168 (mean)
               educ            =    5.393164 (mean)
               inc             =    2.994727 (mean)
               lr              =           4 (mean)
               unem            =    .0464844 (mean)
               union           =    .4021484 (mean)
               B1008           =    2005.119 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .9145588   .0229698    39.82   0.000     .8695388    .9595789
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ***
. *****Replicating supporting evidence. Section C of the Appendix*****
. ***Deriving the expected utility values of making strong pledges pre-electorally.
>  Discussion on Pages 12 & 13 of the online Appendix
. 
. ** vote diff for 1 sd change in pledge across mean, for range of totgen HOLD SA: 
> here we predict the potential electoral losses if strong pledge, welfare cuts & c
> ontrol of social affairs portfolio (about 4.5%)
. meqrlogit vleftt dtotgen leftpled leftgov leftaff pledxgen pledxsa genxaff genxle
> ftpledxsa age female educ inc lr unem union B1008 ||ccode:

Refining starting values: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -13889.647  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -13862.691  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -13861.362  

Performing gradient-based optimization: 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -13861.362  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -13761.831  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -13756.155  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -13756.088  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -13756.088  

Mixed-effects logistic regression               Number of obs     =     28,361
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =          8

                                                Obs per group:
                                                              min =        824
                                                              avg =    3,545.1
                                                              max =      7,459

Integration points =   7                        Wald chi2(16)     =    2359.82
Log likelihood = -13756.088                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         vleftt |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        dtotgen |   .8614831   .1509186     5.71   0.000     .5656882    1.157278
       leftpled |   .0612495   .0181894     3.37   0.001     .0255989       .0969
        leftgov |  -.1558933   .1174863    -1.33   0.185    -.3861623    .0743757
        leftaff |   .4667413   .1268469     3.68   0.000      .218126    .7153567
       pledxgen |  -.0005423   .0007163    -0.76   0.449    -.0019463    .0008617
        pledxsa |   -.063102   .0160693    -3.93   0.000    -.0945973   -.0316066
        genxaff |  -1.729577   .1720234   -10.05   0.000    -2.066737   -1.392417
genxleftpledxsa |   .1593342   .0297891     5.35   0.000     .1009487    .2177197
            age |   .0077306   .0009532     8.11   0.000     .0058623     .009599
         female |   .0019634    .029999     0.07   0.948    -.0568336    .0607603
           educ |  -.0800619   .0097875    -8.18   0.000    -.0992451   -.0608788
            inc |   .0072177   .0116028     0.62   0.534    -.0155235    .0299588
             lr |  -.3166804   .0073286   -43.21   0.000    -.3310442   -.3023167
           unem |   -.289372   .0738327    -3.92   0.000    -.4340815   -.1446626
          union |   .3969085   .0336819    11.78   0.000     .3308933    .4629238
          B1008 |   -.121136   .0094861   -12.77   0.000    -.1397285   -.1025436
          _cons |   242.2554   18.92162    12.80   0.000     205.1697    279.3411
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Random-effects Parameters  |   Estimate   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------------+------------------------------------------------
ccode: Identity              |
                  var(_cons) |   .6922225     .35468      .2535761    1.889658
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LR test vs. logistic model: chibar2(01) = 503.16      Prob >= chibar2 = 0.0000

. matrix SA = (.,.)

. forvalues p = -2(.2).8  {
  2. di 9.06+4.98
  3. ***11.5 low
. ***16.5 high
. di `p'
  4. local lplxg=`p'*9.06
  5. local hplxg=`p'*14
  6. di `p'
  7. margins, at(leftgov=1 dtotgen=`p' leftpled=9.06 leftaff=1 pledxgen=`lplxg' ple
> dxsa=9.06 genxaff=`p' genxleftpledxsa=`lplxg') atmeans predict(mu fixedonly)
  8. matrix list r(b)
  9. matrix l=r(b)
 10. matrix list l
 11. margins, at(leftgov=1 dtotgen=`p' leftpled=14 leftaff=1 pledxgen=`hplxg' pledx
> sa=14 genxaff=`p' genxleftpledxsa=`hplxg') atmeans predict(mu fixedonly)
 12. matrix list r(b)
 13. matrix h=r(b)
 14. di "HERE!"
 15. matrix dif=h-l
 16. matrix list dif
 17. matrix dif2=dif,`p'
 18. matrix list dif2
 19. matrix SA=SA\dif2
 20. matrix list SA
 21. }
14.04
-2
-2

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          -2
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =      -18.12
               pledxsa         =        9.06
               genxaff         =          -2
               genxleftpl~a    =      -18.12
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0567439   .0242088     2.34   0.019     .0092954    .1041923
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .05674385

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .05674385

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          -2
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =         -28
               pledxsa         =          14
               genxaff         =          -2
               genxleftpl~a    =         -28
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0122633   .0098903     1.24   0.215    -.0071213    .0316479
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .01226329
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
         _cons
r1  -.04448056

dif2[1,2]
         _cons          c2
r1  -.04448056          -2

SA[2,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1  -.04448056          -2
14.04
-1.8
-1.8

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -1.8
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =     -16.308
               pledxsa         =        9.06
               genxaff         =        -1.8
               genxleftpl~a    =     -16.308
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0631696   .0255952     2.47   0.014      .013004    .1133353
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .06316964

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .06316964

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -1.8
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       -25.2
               pledxsa         =          14
               genxaff         =        -1.8
               genxleftpl~a    =       -25.2
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0160194   .0120632     1.33   0.184    -.0076241    .0396628
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .01601937
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
         _cons
r1  -.04715027

dif2[1,2]
         _cons          c2
r1  -.04715027        -1.8

SA[3,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1  -.04448056          -2
r1  -.04715027        -1.8
14.04
-1.6
-1.6

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -1.6
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =     -14.496
               pledxsa         =        9.06
               genxaff         =        -1.6
               genxleftpl~a    =     -14.496
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0702689   .0270148     2.60   0.009     .0173209    .1232169
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .0702689

symmetric l[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .0702689

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -1.6
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       -22.4
               pledxsa         =          14
               genxaff         =        -1.6
               genxleftpl~a    =       -22.4
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0209016   .0146281     1.43   0.153     -.007769    .0495721
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .02090155
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
         _cons
r1  -.04936735

dif2[1,2]
         _cons          c2
r1  -.04936735        -1.6

SA[4,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1  -.04448056          -2
r1  -.04715027        -1.8
r1  -.04936735        -1.6
14.04
-1.4
-1.4

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -1.4
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =     -12.684
               pledxsa         =        9.06
               genxaff         =        -1.4
               genxleftpl~a    =     -12.684
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0780995   .0284702     2.74   0.006      .022299       .1339
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .07809948

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .07809948

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -1.4
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       -19.6
               pledxsa         =          14
               genxaff         =        -1.4
               genxleftpl~a    =       -19.6
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0272305   .0176196     1.55   0.122    -.0073034    .0617644
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .02723048
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
       _cons
r1  -.050869

dif2[1,2]
       _cons        c2
r1  -.050869      -1.4

SA[5,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1  -.04448056          -2
r1  -.04715027        -1.8
r1  -.04936735        -1.6
r1    -.050869        -1.4
14.04
-1.2
-1.2

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -1.2
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =     -10.872
               pledxsa         =        9.06
               genxaff         =        -1.2
               genxleftpl~a    =     -10.872
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0867213   .0299678     2.89   0.004     .0279855     .145457
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .0867213

symmetric l[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .0867213

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -1.2
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       -16.8
               pledxsa         =          14
               genxaff         =        -1.2
               genxleftpl~a    =       -16.8
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0354065   .0210594     1.68   0.093    -.0058693    .0766823
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .0354065
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  -.0513148

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  -.0513148       -1.2

SA[6,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1  -.04448056          -2
r1  -.04715027        -1.8
r1  -.04936735        -1.6
r1    -.050869        -1.4
r1   -.0513148        -1.2
14.04
-1
-1

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          -1
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       -9.06
               pledxsa         =        9.06
               genxaff         =          -1
               genxleftpl~a    =       -9.06
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0961956   .0315188     3.05   0.002     .0344199    .1579712
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09619558

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09619558

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          -1
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =         -14
               pledxsa         =          14
               genxaff         =          -1
               genxleftpl~a    =         -14
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0459215   .0249485     1.84   0.066    -.0029767    .0948197
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .04592148
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  -.0502741

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  -.0502741         -1

SA[7,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1  -.04448056          -2
r1  -.04715027        -1.8
r1  -.04936735        -1.6
r1    -.050869        -1.4
r1   -.0513148        -1.2
r1   -.0502741          -1
14.04
-.8
-.8

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.8
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =      -7.248
               pledxsa         =        9.06
               genxaff         =         -.8
               genxleftpl~a    =      -7.248
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1065842   .0331407     3.22   0.001     .0416296    .1715387
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10658415

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10658415

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.8
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       -11.2
               pledxsa         =          14
               genxaff         =         -.8
               genxleftpl~a    =       -11.2
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |    .059367   .0292602     2.03   0.042     .0020182    .1167159
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .05936701
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
         _cons
r1  -.04721714

dif2[1,2]
         _cons          c2
r1  -.04721714         -.8

SA[8,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1  -.04448056          -2
r1  -.04715027        -1.8
r1  -.04936735        -1.6
r1    -.050869        -1.4
r1   -.0513148        -1.2
r1   -.0502741          -1
r1  -.04721714         -.8
14.04
-.6
-.6

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.6
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =      -5.436
               pledxsa         =        9.06
               genxaff         =         -.6
               genxleftpl~a    =      -5.436
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1179482   .0348585     3.38   0.001     .0496268    .1862697
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11794821

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11794821

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.6
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =        -8.4
               pledxsa         =          14
               genxaff         =         -.6
               genxleftpl~a    =        -8.4
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0764339   .0339358     2.25   0.024     .0099211    .1429468
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .07643393
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
         _cons
r1  -.04151429

dif2[1,2]
         _cons          c2
r1  -.04151429         -.6

SA[9,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1  -.04448056          -2
r1  -.04715027        -1.8
r1  -.04936735        -1.6
r1    -.050869        -1.4
r1   -.0513148        -1.2
r1   -.0502741          -1
r1  -.04721714         -.8
r1  -.04151429         -.6
14.04
-.4
-.4

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.4
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =      -3.624
               pledxsa         =        9.06
               genxaff         =         -.4
               genxleftpl~a    =      -3.624
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1303471   .0367055     3.55   0.000     .0584056    .2022887
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .13034714

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .13034714

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.4
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =        -5.6
               pledxsa         =          14
               genxaff         =         -.4
               genxleftpl~a    =        -5.6
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0978966   .0388894     2.52   0.012     .0216748    .1741184
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09789662
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
         _cons
r1  -.03245052

dif2[1,2]
         _cons          c2
r1  -.03245052         -.4

SA[10,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1  -.04448056          -2
r1  -.04715027        -1.8
r1  -.04936735        -1.6
r1    -.050869        -1.4
r1   -.0513148        -1.2
r1   -.0502741          -1
r1  -.04721714         -.8
r1  -.04151429         -.6
r1  -.03245052         -.4
14.04
-.2
-.2

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.2
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =      -1.812
               pledxsa         =        9.06
               genxaff         =         -.2
               genxleftpl~a    =      -1.812
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1438369   .0387235     3.71   0.000     .0679402    .2197336
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .14383691

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .14383691

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.2
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =        -2.8
               pledxsa         =          14
               genxaff         =         -.2
               genxleftpl~a    =        -2.8
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1245731   .0440274     2.83   0.005     .0382811    .2108652
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .12457314
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
         _cons
r1  -.01926377

dif2[1,2]
         _cons          c2
r1  -.01926377         -.2

SA[11,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1  -.04448056          -2
r1  -.04715027        -1.8
r1  -.04936735        -1.6
r1    -.050869        -1.4
r1   -.0513148        -1.2
r1   -.0502741          -1
r1  -.04721714         -.8
r1  -.04151429         -.6
r1  -.03245052         -.4
r1  -.01926377         -.2
14.04
-2.776e-16
-2.776e-16

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =   -2.78e-16
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =   -2.51e-15
               pledxsa         =        9.06
               genxaff         =   -2.78e-16
               genxleftpl~a    =   -2.51e-15
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1584684   .0409617     3.87   0.000      .078185    .2387518
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .15846837

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .15846837

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =   -2.78e-16
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =   -3.89e-15
               pledxsa         =          14
               genxaff         =   -2.78e-16
               genxleftpl~a    =   -3.89e-15
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1572518   .0492875     3.19   0.001     .0606501    .2538535
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .15725179
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
         _cons
r1  -.00121658

dif2[1,2]
         _cons          c2
r1  -.00121658  -2.776e-16

SA[12,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1  -.04448056          -2
r1  -.04715027        -1.8
r1  -.04936735        -1.6
r1    -.050869        -1.4
r1   -.0513148        -1.2
r1   -.0502741          -1
r1  -.04721714         -.8
r1  -.04151429         -.6
r1  -.03245052         -.4
r1  -.01926377         -.2
r1  -.00121658  -2.776e-16
14.04
.2
.2

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          .2
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       1.812
               pledxsa         =        9.06
               genxaff         =          .2
               genxleftpl~a    =       1.812
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1742852   .0434742     4.01   0.000     .0890774     .259493
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .1742852

symmetric l[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .1742852

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          .2
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =         2.8
               pledxsa         =          14
               genxaff         =          .2
               genxleftpl~a    =         2.8
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1965779   .0546902     3.59   0.000      .089387    .3037688
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .19657791
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .02229271

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .02229271         .2

SA[13,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1  -.04448056          -2
r1  -.04715027        -1.8
r1  -.04936735        -1.6
r1    -.050869        -1.4
r1   -.0513148        -1.2
r1   -.0502741          -1
r1  -.04721714         -.8
r1  -.04151429         -.6
r1  -.03245052         -.4
r1  -.01926377         -.2
r1  -.00121658  -2.776e-16
r1   .02229271          .2
14.04
.4
.4

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          .4
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       3.624
               pledxsa         =        9.06
               genxaff         =          .4
               genxleftpl~a    =       3.624
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1913218   .0463162     4.13   0.000     .1005438    .2820998
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .1913218

symmetric l[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .1913218

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          .4
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =         5.6
               pledxsa         =          14
               genxaff         =          .4
               genxleftpl~a    =         5.6
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .2429042     .06037     4.02   0.000     .1245812    .3612272
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .24290418
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .05158237

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .05158237         .4

SA[14,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1  -.04448056          -2
r1  -.04715027        -1.8
r1  -.04936735        -1.6
r1    -.050869        -1.4
r1   -.0513148        -1.2
r1   -.0502741          -1
r1  -.04721714         -.8
r1  -.04151429         -.6
r1  -.03245052         -.4
r1  -.01926377         -.2
r1  -.00121658  -2.776e-16
r1   .02229271          .2
r1   .05158237          .4
14.04
.6
.6

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          .6
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       5.436
               pledxsa         =        9.06
               genxaff         =          .6
               genxleftpl~a    =       5.436
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |    .209601   .0495386     4.23   0.000     .1125072    .3066948
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .20960101

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .20960101

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          .6
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =         8.4
               pledxsa         =          14
               genxaff         =          .6
               genxleftpl~a    =         8.4
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .2961239   .0665276     4.45   0.000     .1657323    .4265155
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .29612393
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .08652292

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .08652292         .6

SA[15,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1  -.04448056          -2
r1  -.04715027        -1.8
r1  -.04936735        -1.6
r1    -.050869        -1.4
r1   -.0513148        -1.2
r1   -.0502741          -1
r1  -.04721714         -.8
r1  -.04151429         -.6
r1  -.03245052         -.4
r1  -.01926377         -.2
r1  -.00121658  -2.776e-16
r1   .02229271          .2
r1   .05158237          .4
r1   .08652292          .6
14.04
.8
.8

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          .8
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       7.248
               pledxsa         =        9.06
               genxaff         =          .8
               genxleftpl~a    =       7.248
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .2291318   .0531818     4.31   0.000     .1248974    .3333663
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .22913183

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .22913183

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          .8
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =        11.2
               pledxsa         =          14
               genxaff         =          .8
               genxleftpl~a    =        11.2
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .3555284   .0732653     4.85   0.000     .2119311    .4991257
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .3555284
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .12639657

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .12639657         .8

SA[16,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1  -.04448056          -2
r1  -.04715027        -1.8
r1  -.04936735        -1.6
r1    -.050869        -1.4
r1   -.0513148        -1.2
r1   -.0502741          -1
r1  -.04721714         -.8
r1  -.04151429         -.6
r1  -.03245052         -.4
r1  -.01926377         -.2
r1  -.00121658  -2.776e-16
r1   .02229271          .2
r1   .05158237          .4
r1   .08652292          .6
r1   .12639657          .8

. *svmat SA
. sum SA1 SA2

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
         SA1 |         15   -.0098882    .0566434  -.0513147   .1263959
         SA2 |         15         -.6    .8944272         -2         .8

. scatter SA1 SA2

. *gen percvoteSA=SA1*100
. label variable percvoteSA "Vote Change in SA"

. label variable SA2 "D.Totgen"

. twoway (line percvoteSA SA2),yline(0) title(Expected Vote Cost at Time of Negotia
> tion) 

. 
. ** vote diff for 1 sd change in pledge across mean, for range of totgen in GOV: H
> ere we predict the potential electoral losses/gains if the left makes a strong pl
> edge & does not control social affairs (about 3.3%)
. matrix GP = (.,.)

. forvalues p = .1(.1)1.5 {
  2. di `p'
  3. local lpl=9.06-`p'*4.98*.5
  4. local hpl=9.06+`p'*4.98*.5
  5. local lplxg=`lpl'*-.7   
  6. local hplxg=`hpl'*-.7
  7. di `p'
  8. margins, at(leftgov=1 dtotgen=-.7 leftpled=`lpl' leftaff=0 pledxgen=`lplxg' pl
> edxsa=0 genxaff=0 genxleftpledxsa=0) atmeans predict(mu fixedonly)
  9. matrix list r(b)
 10. matrix l=r(b)
 11. matrix list l
 12. margins, at(leftgov=1 dtotgen=-.7 leftpled=`hpl' leftaff=0 pledxgen=`hplxg' pl
> edxsa=0 genxaff=0 genxleftpledxsa=0) atmeans predict(mu fixedonly)
 13. matrix list r(b)
 14. matrix h=r(b)
 15. di "HERE!"
 16. matrix dif=h-l
 17. matrix list dif
 18. matrix dif2=dif,`p'
 19. matrix list dif2
 20. matrix GP=GP\dif2
 21. matrix list GP
 22. }
.1
.1

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       8.811
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -6.1677
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1015928   .0322719     3.15   0.002      .038341    .1648446
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10159281

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10159281

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       9.309
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -6.5163
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1044285    .032663     3.20   0.001     .0404102    .1684468
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .1044285
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .0028357

dif2[1,2]
       _cons        c2
r1  .0028357        .1

GP[2,2]
          c1        c2
r1         .         .
r1  .0028357        .1
.2
.2

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       8.562
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -5.9934
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1002007   .0320806     3.12   0.002     .0373239    .1630775
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10020072

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10020072

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       9.558
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -6.6906
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1058724   .0328631     3.22   0.001      .041462    .1702828
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10587241
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .00567169

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .00567169         .2

GP[3,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1   .0028357         .1
r1  .00567169         .2
.3
.3

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       8.313
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -5.8191
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0988256   .0318918     3.10   0.002     .0363189    .1613324
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09882561

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09882561

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       9.807
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -6.8649
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1073339   .0330663     3.25   0.001      .042525    .1721427
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .1073339
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .00850828

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .00850828         .3

GP[4,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1   .0028357         .1
r1  .00567169         .2
r1  .00850828         .3
.4
.4

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       8.064
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -5.6448
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0974673   .0317054     3.07   0.002     .0353259    .1596088
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09746734

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09746734

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      10.056
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -7.0392
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1088131    .033273     3.27   0.001     .0435991     .174027
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10881309
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .01134576

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .01134576         .4

GP[5,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1   .0028357         .1
r1  .00567169         .2
r1  .00850828         .3
r1  .01134576         .4
.5
.5

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       7.815
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -5.4705
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0961257   .0315213     3.05   0.002     .0343452    .1579063
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09612573

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09612573

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      10.305
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -7.2135
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1103102   .0334833     3.29   0.001      .044684    .1759363
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11031017
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .01418443

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .01418443         .5

GP[6,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1   .0028357         .1
r1  .00567169         .2
r1  .00850828         .3
r1  .01134576         .4
r1  .01418443         .5
.6
.6

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       7.566
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -5.2962
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0948007   .0313393     3.02   0.002     .0333768    .1562245
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09480066

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09480066

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      10.554
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -7.3878
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1118252   .0336974     3.32   0.001     .0457795     .177871
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11182524
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .01702459

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .01702459         .6

GP[7,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1   .0028357         .1
r1  .00567169         .2
r1  .00850828         .3
r1  .01134576         .4
r1  .01418443         .5
r1  .01702459         .6
.7
.7

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       7.317
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -5.1219
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |    .093492   .0311593     3.00   0.003     .0324208    .1545631
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09349196

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09349196

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      10.803
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -7.5621
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1133585   .0339155     3.34   0.001     .0468853    .1798317
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11335848
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .01986653

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .01986653         .7

GP[8,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1   .0028357         .1
r1  .00567169         .2
r1  .00850828         .3
r1  .01134576         .4
r1  .01418443         .5
r1  .01702459         .6
r1  .01986653         .7
.8
.8

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       7.068
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -4.9476
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0921995   .0309812     2.98   0.003     .0314775    .1529215
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09219948

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09219948

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      11.052
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -7.7364
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |     .11491   .0341378     3.37   0.001     .0480011    .1818189
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11491002
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .02271054

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .02271054         .8

GP[9,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1   .0028357         .1
r1  .00567169         .2
r1  .00850828         .3
r1  .01134576         .4
r1  .01418443         .5
r1  .01702459         .6
r1  .01986653         .7
r1  .02271054         .8
.9
.9

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       6.819
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -4.7733
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0909231   .0308048     2.95   0.003     .0305468    .1512994
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09092308

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09092308

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      11.301
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -7.9107
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |     .11648   .0343645     3.39   0.001     .0491268    .1838332
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
     _cons
r1  .11648
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .02555692

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .02555692         .9

GP[10,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1   .0028357         .1
r1  .00567169         .2
r1  .00850828         .3
r1  .01134576         .4
r1  .01418443         .5
r1  .01702459         .6
r1  .01986653         .7
r1  .02271054         .8
r1  .02555692         .9
1
1

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =        6.57
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =      -4.599
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0896626     .03063     2.93   0.003     .0296289    .1496964
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .08966261

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .08966261

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       11.55
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =      -8.085
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1180686   .0345958     3.41   0.001      .050262    .1858751
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11806858
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .02840597

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .02840597          1

GP[11,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1   .0028357         .1
r1  .00567169         .2
r1  .00850828         .3
r1  .01134576         .4
r1  .01418443         .5
r1  .01702459         .6
r1  .01986653         .7
r1  .02271054         .8
r1  .02555692         .9
r1  .02840597          1
1.1
1.1

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       6.321
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -4.4247
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0884179   .0304568     2.90   0.004     .0287237    .1481121
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .08841791

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .08841791

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      11.799
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -8.2593
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1196759    .034832     3.44   0.001     .0514065    .1879453
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11967588
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .03125797

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .03125797        1.1

GP[12,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1   .0028357         .1
r1  .00567169         .2
r1  .00850828         .3
r1  .01134576         .4
r1  .01418443         .5
r1  .01702459         .6
r1  .01986653         .7
r1  .02271054         .8
r1  .02555692         .9
r1  .02840597          1
r1  .03125797        1.1
1.2
1.2

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       6.072
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -4.2504
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0871888   .0302849     2.88   0.004     .0278315    .1465462
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .08718884

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .08718884

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      12.048
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -8.4336
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1213021   .0350732     3.46   0.001     .0525599    .1900443
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .12130207
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .03411323

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .03411323        1.2

GP[13,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1   .0028357         .1
r1  .00567169         .2
r1  .00850828         .3
r1  .01134576         .4
r1  .01418443         .5
r1  .01702459         .6
r1  .01986653         .7
r1  .02271054         .8
r1  .02555692         .9
r1  .02840597          1
r1  .03125797        1.1
r1  .03411323        1.2
1.3
1.3

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       5.823
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -4.0761
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0859752   .0301144     2.85   0.004     .0269522    .1449983
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .08597524

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .08597524

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      12.297
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -8.6079
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1229473   .0353197     3.48   0.000     .0537219    .1921726
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .12294725
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .03697201

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .03697201        1.3

GP[14,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1   .0028357         .1
r1  .00567169         .2
r1  .00850828         .3
r1  .01134576         .4
r1  .01418443         .5
r1  .01702459         .6
r1  .01986653         .7
r1  .02271054         .8
r1  .02555692         .9
r1  .02840597          1
r1  .03125797        1.1
r1  .03411323        1.2
r1  .03697201        1.3
1.4
1.4

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       5.574
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -3.9018
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |    .084777    .029945     2.83   0.005     .0260858    .1434681
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .08477696

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .08477696

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      12.546
               leftgov         =           1
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -8.7822
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1246116   .0355718     3.50   0.000     .0548922    .1943309
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .12461158
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .03983462

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .03983462        1.4

GP[15,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1   .0028357         .1
r1  .00567169         .2
r1  .00850828         .3
r1  .01134576         .4
r1  .01418443         .5
r1  .01702459         .6
r1  .01986653         .7
r1  .02271054         .8
r1  .02555692         .9
r1  .02840597          1
r1  .03125797        1.1
r1  .03411323        1.2
r1  .03697201        1.3
r1  .03983462        1.4

. *svmat GP
. sum GP1 GP2

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
         GP1 |         14    .0213062    .0119032   .0028357   .0398345
         GP2 |         14         .75      .41833         .1        1.4

. *gen percvoteGP=GP1*100
. label variable percvoteGP "Vote Change in SA"

. label variable GP2 "Pledge Size Shift"

. twoway (line percvoteGP GP2),yline(0) title(Expected Vote Cost at Time of Negotia
> tion)

. 
. ** vote diff for 1 sd change in pledge across mean, for range of totgen OUT of GO
> V: Here we predict the potential electoral losses/gains if the left makes a stron
> g pledge & stays out of government (about 3.5%)
. matrix NG = (.,.)

. forvalues p = -2(.2).8  {
  2. ***5.8 low
. ***11.895 high
. di `p'
  3. local lplxg=`p'*9.06
  4. local hplxg=`p'*14
  5. di `p'
  6. margins, at(leftgov=0 dtotgen=`p' leftpled=9.06 leftaff=1 pledxgen=`lplxg' ple
> dxsa=0 genxaff=0 genxleftpledxsa=0) atmeans predict(mu fixedonly)
  7. matrix list r(b)
  8. matrix l=r(b)
  9. matrix list l
 10. margins, at(leftgov=0 dtotgen=`p' leftpled=14 leftaff=1 pledxgen=`hplxg' pledx
> sa=0 genxaff=0 genxleftpledxsa=0) atmeans predict(mu fixedonly)
 11. matrix list r(b)
 12. matrix h=r(b)
 13. di "HERE!"
 14. matrix dif=h-l
 15. matrix list dif
 16. matrix dif2=dif,`p'
 17. matrix list dif2
 18. matrix NG=NG\dif2
 19. matrix list NG
 20. }
-2
-2

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          -2
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =      -18.12
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0656685   .0235622     2.79   0.005     .0194874    .1118497
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .06566854

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .06566854

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          -2
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =         -28
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0872821   .0277894     3.14   0.002      .032816    .1417483
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .08728214
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .02161359

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .02161359         -2

NG[2,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .02161359         -2
-1.8
-1.8

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -1.8
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =     -16.308
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0769948   .0261802     2.94   0.003     .0256826     .128307
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .07699478

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .07699478

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -1.8
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       -25.2
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1018805   .0309642     3.29   0.001     .0411918    .1625692
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10188048
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .0248857

dif2[1,2]
       _cons        c2
r1  .0248857      -1.8

NG[3,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .02161359         -2
r1   .0248857       -1.8
-1.6
-1.6

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -1.6
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =     -14.496
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0900862   .0290595     3.10   0.002     .0331307    .1470417
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09008616

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09008616

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -1.6
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       -22.4
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1186032   .0345181     3.44   0.001      .050949    .1862573
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11860318
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .02851701

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .02851701       -1.6

NG[4,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .02161359         -2
r1   .0248857       -1.8
r1  .02851701       -1.6
-1.4
-1.4

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -1.4
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =     -12.684
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1051499   .0322365     3.26   0.001     .0419676    .1683322
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .1051499

symmetric l[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .1051499

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -1.4
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       -19.6
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1376501   .0385065     3.57   0.000     .0621787    .2131215
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .13765007
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .03250017

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .03250017       -1.4

NG[5,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .02161359         -2
r1   .0248857       -1.8
r1  .02851701       -1.6
r1  .03250017       -1.4
-1.2
-1.2

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -1.2
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =     -10.872
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1223937   .0357549     3.42   0.001     .0523154     .192472
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .12239368

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .12239368

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =        -1.2
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       -16.8
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1592032   .0429837     3.70   0.000     .0749566    .2434498
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .15920324
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .03680956

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .03680956       -1.2

NG[6,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .02161359         -2
r1   .0248857       -1.8
r1  .02851701       -1.6
r1  .03250017       -1.4
r1  .03680956       -1.2
-1
-1

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          -1
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       -9.06
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1420165   .0396637     3.58   0.000     .0642771     .219756
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .14201653

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .14201653

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          -1
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =         -14
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1834134   .0479932     3.82   0.000     .0893485    .2774783
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .18341344
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .04139691

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .04139691         -1

NG[7,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .02161359         -2
r1   .0248857       -1.8
r1  .02851701       -1.6
r1  .03250017       -1.4
r1  .03680956       -1.2
r1  .04139691         -1
-.8
-.8

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.8
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =      -7.248
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1641968   .0440123     3.73   0.000     .0779343    .2504593
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .16419681

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .16419681

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.8
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       -11.2
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .2103841   .0535552     3.93   0.000     .1054177    .3153504
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .21038407
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .04618726

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .04618726        -.8

NG[8,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .02161359         -2
r1   .0248857       -1.8
r1  .02851701       -1.6
r1  .03250017       -1.4
r1  .03680956       -1.2
r1  .04139691         -1
r1  .04618726        -.8
-.6
-.6

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.6
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =      -5.436
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1890778   .0488417     3.87   0.000     .0933498    .2848059
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .18907782

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .18907782

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.6
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =        -8.4
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .2401543    .059653     4.03   0.000     .1232365    .3570721
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .2401543
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .05107648

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .05107648        -.6

NG[9,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .02161359         -2
r1   .0248857       -1.8
r1  .02851701       -1.6
r1  .03250017       -1.4
r1  .03680956       -1.2
r1  .04139691         -1
r1  .04618726        -.8
r1  .05107648        -.6
-.4
-.4

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.4
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =      -3.624
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .2167513   .0541728     4.00   0.000     .1105746     .322928
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .21675134

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .21675134

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.4
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =        -5.6
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .2726824   .0662189     4.12   0.000     .1428957    .4024691
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .27268239
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .05593105

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .05593105        -.4

NG[10,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .02161359         -2
r1   .0248857       -1.8
r1  .02851701       -1.6
r1  .03250017       -1.4
r1  .03680956       -1.2
r1  .04139691         -1
r1  .04618726        -.8
r1  .05107648        -.6
r1  .05593105        -.4
-.2
-.2

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.2
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =      -1.812
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .2472403   .0599913     4.12   0.000     .1296595     .364821
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .24724027

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .24724027

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.2
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =        -2.8
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .3078314   .0731245     4.21   0.000       .16451    .4511528
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .30783139
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .06059112

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .06059112        -.2

NG[11,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .02161359         -2
r1   .0248857       -1.8
r1  .02851701       -1.6
r1  .03250017       -1.4
r1  .03680956       -1.2
r1  .04139691         -1
r1  .04618726        -.8
r1  .05107648        -.6
r1  .05593105        -.4
r1  .06059112        -.2
-2.776e-16
-2.776e-16

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =   -2.78e-16
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =   -2.51e-15
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .2804821   .0662342     4.23   0.000     .1506655    .4102987
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .2804821

symmetric l[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .2804821

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =   -2.78e-16
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =   -3.89e-15
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .3453598   .0801778     4.31   0.000     .1882142    .5025053
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .34535976
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .06487765

dif2[1,2]
         _cons          c2
r1   .06487765  -2.776e-16

NG[12,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1   .02161359          -2
r1    .0248857        -1.8
r1   .02851701        -1.6
r1   .03250017        -1.4
r1   .03680956        -1.2
r1   .04139691          -1
r1   .04618726         -.8
r1   .05107648         -.6
r1   .05593105         -.4
r1   .06059112         -.2
r1   .06487765  -2.776e-16
.2
.2

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          .2
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       1.812
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .3163153   .0727789     4.35   0.000     .1736712    .4589594
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .31631526

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .31631526

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          .2
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =         2.8
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |    .384919   .0871288     4.42   0.000     .2141496    .5556884
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .38491901
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .06860374

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .06860374         .2

NG[13,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1   .02161359          -2
r1    .0248857        -1.8
r1   .02851701        -1.6
r1   .03250017        -1.4
r1   .03680956        -1.2
r1   .04139691          -1
r1   .04618726         -.8
r1   .05107648         -.6
r1   .05593105         -.4
r1   .06059112         -.2
r1   .06487765  -2.776e-16
r1   .06860374          .2
.4
.4

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          .4
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       3.624
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |    .354471   .0794402     4.46   0.000     .1987711    .5101709
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .35447101

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .35447101

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          .4
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =         5.6
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .4260605   .0936858     4.55   0.000     .2424396    .6096813
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .42606045
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .07158944

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .07158944         .4

NG[14,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1   .02161359          -2
r1    .0248857        -1.8
r1   .02851701        -1.6
r1   .03250017        -1.4
r1   .03680956        -1.2
r1   .04139691          -1
r1   .04618726         -.8
r1   .05107648         -.6
r1   .05593105         -.4
r1   .06059112         -.2
r1   .06487765  -2.776e-16
r1   .06860374          .2
r1   .07158944          .4
.6
.6

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          .6
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       5.436
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .3945731   .0859757     4.59   0.000     .2260638    .5630823
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .39457307

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .39457307

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          .6
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =         8.4
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .4682516   .0995395     4.70   0.000     .2731578    .6633455
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .46825161
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .07367855

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .07367855         .6

NG[15,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1   .02161359          -2
r1    .0248857        -1.8
r1   .02851701        -1.6
r1   .03250017        -1.4
r1   .03680956        -1.2
r1   .04139691          -1
r1   .04618726         -.8
r1   .05107648         -.6
r1   .05593105         -.4
r1   .06059112         -.2
r1   .06487765  -2.776e-16
r1   .06860374          .2
r1   .07158944          .4
r1   .07367855          .6
.8
.8

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          .8
               leftpled        =        9.06
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =       7.248
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .4361467   .0921027     4.74   0.000     .2556287    .6166646
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .43614667

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .43614667

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =          .8
               leftpled        =          14
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           1
               pledxgen        =        11.2
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .5109017   .1043933     4.89   0.000     .3062946    .7155087
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .51090165
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .07475499

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .07475499         .8

NG[16,2]
            c1          c2
r1           .           .
r1   .02161359          -2
r1    .0248857        -1.8
r1   .02851701        -1.6
r1   .03250017        -1.4
r1   .03680956        -1.2
r1   .04139691          -1
r1   .04618726         -.8
r1   .05107648         -.6
r1   .05593105         -.4
r1   .06059112         -.2
r1   .06487765  -2.776e-16
r1   .06860374          .2
r1   .07158944          .4
r1   .07367855          .6
r1   .07475499          .8

. *svmat NG
. sum NG1 NG2

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
         NG1 |         15     .050201    .0185583   .0216137   .0747552
         NG2 |         15         -.6    .8944272         -2         .8

. *gen percvoteNG=NG1*100
. label variable percvoteNG "Vote Change High-Low Pledge"

. label variable NG2 "D.Totgen"

. twoway (line percvoteNG SA2),yline(0) title(Expected Vote Cost at Time of Negotia
> tion) 

. 
. ***Equation 4 of Section C in the Online Appendix: Page 13****
. *gen preexpvote=(.69*.75*percvoteSA)+.69*(1-.75)*percvoteG+(1-.69)*percvoteNG
. label variable preexpvote "Vote Change Pre Election"

. twoway (line percvoteSA SA2)(line preexpvote SA2),yline(0) title(Expected Vote Co
> st +/-1/2 SD Around Mean)

. 
. 
. ***** Figure CA1****
.   # delimit; 
delimiter now ;
. graph twoway hist dtotgen, yscale(alt off noline) fcolor(gs15) lwidth(vvvthin) //
>  yscale provides options about the axis for this plot
>                   || line percvoteSA SA2, clpattern(solid) clwidth(thin) yaxis(2)
>  yscale(alt axis(2)) //Add as many overlaying plots as you like as new lines 
>                   || line preexpvote SA2, clpattern(solid) clwidth(thick) yaxis(2
> ) yscale(alt axis(2)) //Add as many overlaying plots as you like as new lines 
>                   ||,
>              xscale(noline)
>              yscale(noline)
>              legend(order(2 3))
>              title("Expected Vote Cost/Benefit", size(5))
>              subtitle("Range of Welfare Spending, 1 SD Change in Pledge", size(4)
> )
>              xtitle("Welfare", size(3))
>              ytitle("Vote Cost/Benefit", size (3) axis(2)) 
>              ytitle("") 
>              note("", size(2))
>              xsca(titlegap(2))
>              ysca(titlegap(4))
>              scheme(s2mono)
>              graphregion(fcolor(white))
>              graphregion(margin(zero));

.  # delimit cr            exit;
delimiter now cr
.  //Changes end line back to normal
. 
. graph export GraphCA1_ppp.tif, replace width(4800)
(file GraphCA1_ppp.tif written in TIFF format)

. graph export GraphCA1_ppp.pdf, replace 
(file /Users/despina.alexiadou/Dropbox/mac_2011/pledges/PSRM_R1_Materials/dataverse
> _psrm/Section_B_C_Appendix/GraphCA1_ppp.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
. ****Preparing data for Figure CA2***
. ** vote diff for 1 sd change in pledge across mean, for range of totgen: Here we 
> estimate the expected electoral loss/gain, holding the cuts in welfare constant a
> t -.7 and varying the stenght of the left pledge, when not in governmnet
. matrix NGP = (.,.)

. forvalues p = .1(.1)1.5 {
  2. ***mean totgen -.238
. ***5.8 low
. ***11.895 high
. **** sd 6.09
. di `p'
  3. local lpl=9.06-`p'*4.98*.5
  4. local hpl=9.06+`p'*4.98*.5
  5. local lplxg=`lpl'*-.7   
  6. local hplxg=`hpl'*-.7
  7. di `p'
  8. margins, at(leftgov=0 dtotgen=-.7 leftpled=`lpl' leftaff=0 pledxgen=`lplxg' pl
> edxsa=0 genxaff=0 genxleftpledxsa=0) atmeans predict(mu fixedonly)
  9. matrix list r(b)
 10. matrix l=r(b)
 11. matrix list l
 12. margins, at(leftgov=0 dtotgen=-.7 leftpled=`hpl' leftaff=0 pledxgen=`hplxg' pl
> edxsa=0 genxaff=0 genxleftpledxsa=0) atmeans predict(mu fixedonly)
 13. matrix list r(b)
 14. matrix h=r(b)
 15. di "HERE!"
 16. matrix dif=h-l
 17. matrix list dif
 18. matrix dif2=dif,`p'
 19. matrix list dif2
 20. matrix NGP=NGP\dif2
 21. matrix list NGP
 22. }
.1
.1

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       8.811
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -6.1677
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |    .116731   .0327585     3.56   0.000     .0525255    .1809365
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11673103

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11673103

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       9.309
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -6.5163
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1199329   .0332046     3.61   0.000     .0548531    .1850126
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11993286
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .00320183

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .00320183         .1

NGP[2,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .00320183         .1
.2
.2

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       8.562
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -5.9934
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1151581   .0325431     3.54   0.000     .0513747    .1789415
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .1151581

symmetric l[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .1151581

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       9.558
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -6.6906
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |    .121562   .0334358     3.64   0.000     .0560291     .187095
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .12156204
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .00640394

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .00640394         .2

NGP[3,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .00320183         .1
r1  .00640394         .2
.3
.3

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       8.313
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -5.8191
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1136036   .0323326     3.51   0.000     .0502329    .1769744
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11360364

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11360364

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       9.807
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -6.8649
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1232103   .0336728     3.66   0.000     .0572128    .1892077
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .12321027
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .00960663

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .00960663         .3

NGP[4,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .00320183         .1
r1  .00640394         .2
r1  .00960663         .3
.4
.4

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       8.064
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -5.6448
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1120675   .0321266     3.49   0.000     .0491005    .1750346
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11206751

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11206751

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      10.056
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -7.0392
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1248777   .0339159     3.68   0.000     .0584038    .1913515
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .12487765
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .01281015

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .01281015         .4

NGP[5,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .00320183         .1
r1  .00640394         .2
r1  .00960663         .3
r1  .01281015         .4
.5
.5

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       7.815
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -5.4705
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1105496    .031925     3.46   0.001     .0479777    .1731214
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11054955

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .11054955

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      10.305
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -7.2135
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1265644   .0341652     3.70   0.000     .0596018    .1935269
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .12656435
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
       _cons
r1  .0160148

dif2[1,2]
       _cons        c2
r1  .0160148        .5

NGP[6,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .00320183         .1
r1  .00640394         .2
r1  .00960663         .3
r1  .01281015         .4
r1   .0160148         .5
.6
.6

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       7.566
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -5.2962
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1090496   .0317275     3.44   0.001     .0468648    .1712345
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10904963

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10904963

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      10.554
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -7.3878
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1282705   .0344211     3.73   0.000     .0608064    .1957346
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .12827049
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .01922086

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .01922086         .6

NGP[7,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .00320183         .1
r1  .00640394         .2
r1  .00960663         .3
r1  .01281015         .4
r1   .0160148         .5
r1  .01922086         .6
.7
.7

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       7.317
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -5.1219
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1075676    .031534     3.41   0.001     .0457622     .169373
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10756761

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10756761

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      10.803
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -7.5621
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1299962   .0346838     3.75   0.000     .0620171    .1979753
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .12999621
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .02242861

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .02242861         .7

NGP[8,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .00320183         .1
r1  .00640394         .2
r1  .00960663         .3
r1  .01281015         .4
r1   .0160148         .5
r1  .01922086         .6
r1  .02242861         .7
.8
.8

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       7.068
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -4.9476
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1061033   .0313441     3.39   0.001       .04467    .1675367
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10610332

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10610332

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      11.052
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -7.7364
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1317416   .0349537     3.77   0.000     .0632336    .2002496
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .13174163
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .02563831

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .02563831         .8

NGP[9,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .00320183         .1
r1  .00640394         .2
r1  .00960663         .3
r1  .01281015         .4
r1   .0160148         .5
r1  .01922086         .6
r1  .02242861         .7
r1  .02563831         .8
.9
.9

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       6.819
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -4.7733
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1046566   .0311578     3.36   0.001     .0435885    .1657247
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10465663

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10465663

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      11.301
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -7.9107
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1335069   .0352309     3.79   0.000     .0644556    .2025582
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .13350689
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .02885027

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .02885027         .9

NGP[10,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .00320183         .1
r1  .00640394         .2
r1  .00960663         .3
r1  .01281015         .4
r1   .0160148         .5
r1  .01922086         .6
r1  .02242861         .7
r1  .02563831         .8
r1  .02885027         .9
1
1

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =        6.57
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =      -4.599
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1032274   .0309747     3.33   0.001      .042518    .1639367
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10322739

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10322739

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       11.55
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =      -8.085
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1352921   .0355158     3.81   0.000     .0656825    .2049018
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .13529213
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .03206474

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .03206474          1

NGP[11,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .00320183         .1
r1  .00640394         .2
r1  .00960663         .3
r1  .01281015         .4
r1   .0160148         .5
r1  .01922086         .6
r1  .02242861         .7
r1  .02563831         .8
r1  .02885027         .9
r1  .03206474          1
1.1
1.1

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       6.321
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -4.4247
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1018154   .0307948     3.31   0.001     .0414587    .1621722
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10181544

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10181544

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      11.799
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -8.2593
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1370975   .0358085     3.83   0.000      .066914    .2072809
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .13709745
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .03528201

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .03528201        1.1

NGP[12,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .00320183         .1
r1  .00640394         .2
r1  .00960663         .3
r1  .01281015         .4
r1   .0160148         .5
r1  .01922086         .6
r1  .02242861         .7
r1  .02563831         .8
r1  .02885027         .9
r1  .03206474          1
r1  .03528201        1.1
1.2
1.2

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       6.072
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -4.2504
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1004206   .0306178     3.28   0.001     .0404108    .1604305
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10042065

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .10042065

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      12.048
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -8.4336
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |    .138923   .0361095     3.85   0.000     .0681496    .2096964
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
      _cons
r1  .138923
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .03850236

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .03850236        1.2

NGP[13,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .00320183         .1
r1  .00640394         .2
r1  .00960663         .3
r1  .01281015         .4
r1   .0160148         .5
r1  .01922086         .6
r1  .02242861         .7
r1  .02563831         .8
r1  .02885027         .9
r1  .03206474          1
r1  .03528201        1.1
r1  .03850236        1.2
1.3
1.3

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       5.823
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -4.0761
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0990429   .0304436     3.25   0.001     .0393744    .1587113
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09904286

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09904286

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      12.297
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -8.6079
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1407689   .0364189     3.87   0.000     .0693891    .2121487
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .14076889
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .04172604

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .04172604        1.3

NGP[14,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .00320183         .1
r1  .00640394         .2
r1  .00960663         .3
r1  .01281015         .4
r1   .0160148         .5
r1  .01922086         .6
r1  .02242861         .7
r1  .02563831         .8
r1  .02885027         .9
r1  .03206474          1
r1  .03528201        1.1
r1  .03850236        1.2
r1  .04172604        1.3
1.4
1.4

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =       5.574
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -3.9018
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .0976819    .030272     3.23   0.001     .0383499    .1570139
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09768191

symmetric l[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .09768191

Adjusted predictions                            Number of obs     =     28,361

Expression   : Predicted mean, fixed portion only, predict(mu fixedonly)
at           : dtotgen         =         -.7
               leftpled        =      12.546
               leftgov         =           0
               leftaff         =           0
               pledxgen        =     -8.7822
               pledxsa         =           0
               genxaff         =           0
               genxleftpl~a    =           0
               age             =    47.38782 (mean)
               female          =    1.476323 (mean)
               educ            =    5.400621 (mean)
               inc             =     3.02849 (mean)
               lr              =    5.032368 (mean)
               unem            =    .0480237 (mean)
               union           =    .3277035 (mean)
               B1008           =    2003.536 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1426352   .0367371     3.88   0.000     .0706318    .2146387
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

symmetric r(b)[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .14263524
HERE!

symmetric dif[1,1]
        _cons
r1  .04495333

dif2[1,2]
        _cons         c2
r1  .04495333        1.4

NGP[15,2]
           c1         c2
r1          .          .
r1  .00320183         .1
r1  .00640394         .2
r1  .00960663         .3
r1  .01281015         .4
r1   .0160148         .5
r1  .01922086         .6
r1  .02242861         .7
r1  .02563831         .8
r1  .02885027         .9
r1  .03206474          1
r1  .03528201        1.1
r1  .03850236        1.2
r1  .04172604        1.3
r1  .04495333        1.4

. *svmat NGP
. sum NGP1 NGP2

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
        NGP1 |         14    .0240502    .0134327   .0032018   .0449532
        NGP2 |         14         .75      .41833         .1        1.4

. *gen percvoteNGP=NGP1*100
. label variable percvoteNGP "Vote Change in SA"

. label variable NGP2 "Pledge Size Shift"

. twoway (line percvoteNGP GP2),yline(0) title(Expected Vote Cost at Time of Negoti
> ation)

. 
. *gen preexpvoteP=(.69*.74*percvoteSAP)+.69*(1-.74)*percvoteGP+(1-.69)*percvoteNGP
. label variable preexpvoteP "Vote Change Pre Election"

. twoway (line percvoteSAP SAP2)(line preexpvoteP SAP2),yline(0) title(Expected Vot
> e Cost +/-1/2 SD Around Mean)

. 
. sum leftpled

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
    leftpled |     36,938    8.850164    6.095303       2.06      26.91

. *gen stanleft=leftpled/r(sd)
. 
. ***** Figure CA2
. 
. sum leftpled

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
    leftpled |     36,938    8.850164    6.095303       2.06      26.91

. *gen stanleft=leftpled/r(sd)
. 
.  # delimit; 
delimiter now ;
.         graph twoway hist stanleft if stanleft>0&stanleft<1.5, yscale(alt off nol
> ine) fcolor(gs15) lwidth(vvvthin) // yscale provides options about the axis for t
> his plot
>                   || line percvoteSAP SAP2, clpattern(solid) clwidth(thin) yaxis(
> 2) yscale(alt axis(2)) //Add as many overlaying plots as you like as new lines 
>                   || line preexpvoteP SAP2, clpattern(solid) clwidth(thick) yaxis
> (2) yscale(alt axis(2)) //Add as many overlaying plots as you like as new lines 
>                   ||,
>              xscale(noline)
>              yscale(noline)
>              legend(order(2 3))
>              title("Expected Vote Cost/Benefit", size(5))
>              subtitle("Range of Pledges, 1 SD Lower Generosity", size(4))
>              xtitle("Standardized Pledge", size(3))
>              ytitle("Cost/Benefit", size (3) axis(2)) 
>              ytitle("") 
>              note("", size(2))
>              xsca(titlegap(2))
>              ysca(titlegap(4))
>              scheme(s2mono)
>              graphregion(fcolor(white))
>              graphregion(margin(zero));

.  # delimit cr            exit;
delimiter now cr
.  //Changes end line back to normal
. 
. graph export GraphCA2_ppp.tif, replace width(4800)
(file GraphCA2_ppp.tif written in TIFF format)

. graph export GraphCA2_ppp.pdf, replace 
(file /Users/despina.alexiadou/Dropbox/mac_2011/pledges/PSRM_R1_Materials/dataverse
> _psrm/Section_B_C_Appendix/GraphCA2_ppp.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/despina.alexiadou/Dropbox/mac_2011/pledges/PSRM_R1_Materials/da
> taverse_psrm/Section_B_C_Appendix/log_replication_psrm_ppp_SectionsB_C.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:  31 Dec 2017, 13:53:24
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
